CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001)

4-CME simulation.

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs update (BepiColombo, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-04-14T12:58:16Z
## Message ID: 20250414-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250413-AL-002). The 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001 halo CME was reanalyzed in more detail and two additional fronts were included in the current simulation (see CMEs with IDs 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, and 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001 below). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, and STEREO A.  The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2025-04-14T16:57Z and STEREO A at 2025-04-16T02:50Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may have an impact at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-04-15T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
   

CME parameters:

1: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T00:12Z; parameters were not updated.

Estimated speed: ~485 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -15/-22 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001


2: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:00Z, parameters have been updated.

Estimated speed: ~777 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -12/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001


3: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T08:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~619 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -37/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001


4: Start time of the event: 2025-04-13T07:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~483 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 29/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001, 2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_070600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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